科技创新与金融创新耦合系统脆弱性及政府干预

从理论上论述了政府干预科技创新与金融创新耦合系统脆弱性的必要性、途径及作用机制。基于以耦合系统内部结构为表征的实体子系统脆弱性和以公共创新环境、耦合系统综合效益为测评工具的虚像子系统脆弱性3个维度构建耦合系统脆弱性指数，分别采用静态面板固定效应回归及动态面板两阶段系统GMM回归，实证检验了我国政府干预对耦合系统脆弱性的实质影响。研究表明：在各类干预举措中，政府采购政策与知识产权保护政策效应明显，特别是知识产权保护政策效应潜力巨大；财政政策领域明显存在过度干预现象，其它政策效应或不显著或有违初衷，亟待调整与完善。     

DSGE forecasts of the lost recovery

The years following the Great Recession were challenging for forecasters. Unlike other deep downturns, this recession was not followed by a swift recovery, but instead generated a sizable and persistent output gap that was not accompanied by deflation as a traditional Phillips curve relationship would have predicted. Moreover, the zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policy generated an unprecedented policy environment. We document the actual real-time forecasting performance of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model during this period and explain the results using the pseudo real-time forecasting performance results from a battery of DSGE models. We find the New York Fed DSGE model’s forecasting accuracy to be comparable to that of private forecasters, and notably better for output growth than the median forecasts from the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections. The model’s financial frictions were key in obtaining these results, as they implied a slow recovery following the financial crisis.     

Reverse Payments and Risk of Bankruptcy Under Private Information

Abstract

In the pharmaceutical industry, a reverse payment (pay-for-delay) is a payment from an originator to a generic producer to delay her entry. In some recent cases, the US and EU antitrust authorities have banned these agreements per se, while in others they have used a rule of reason. This paper analyzes their dynamic effects and shows that a ban per se may reduce consumer surplus when the generic producer may go bankrupt and her financial situation is private information. Reverse payments are more beneficial when competition among few players is soft, the economy is in a downturn, and the period of drug usage after patent expiry is long. Results suggest that a rule of reason is more suited than a ban per se.     

The provision of long-term credit and firm growth in developing countries

Do small and young firms benefit from an increase in the provision of long-term loans? By combining firm-level data from 62 countries (over the period 2006–2016) with a new database on short-term and long-term credit provided to the private sector, this article shows a higher provision of long-term credit does not stimulate growth of small and young firms. On the contrary, an increase in the availability of short-term credit spurs firm growth. The main explanation of this (counter-intuitive) result is the differential impact of short-term and long-term credit provision on small and young firms’ access to credit. Young and small firms are able to take advantage of an increase of short-term loans, which allow them to switch from informal finance to bank loans. However, a higher level of long-term credit does not alleviate credit constraints faced by opaque firms because these funds are allocated towards transparent borrowers.     

Fifty years of The Financial Review: A bibliometric overview

The Financial Review (FR) is a highly regarded journal publishing original empirical, theoretical, and methodological research in all areas of financial economics. It celebrated its golden jubilee year in 2018. Using bibliometric techniques, we analyze the journal's impact, prominent topics, most prolific authors, and their affiliated institutions and countries. Our analysis also identifies the most often cited articles at different points in the journal's history. Using textual data analytics, we identify the most frequent themes discussed between 1969 and 2018 by decade.     

Drivers of research impact: evidence from the top three finance journals

We study the characteristics of all published papers in the top three finance journals (JF, JFE and RFS), and how these paper characteristics affect the number of citations in Google Scholar and the Web of Science database. First, we find the characteristics in the universalist perspective remain constant while the characteristics in the constructivist and presentation perspectives increase over time. Second, some characteristics are significantly different between the high-impact and the low-impact papers. Third, paper quality, research method, journal placement and paper age are the most important drivers. Last, different drivers play different roles in different journals.     

How have US banks adopted the Financial Accounting Standards Board's Level 3 fair value disclosure rules?

We examine how banks have complied with the Financial Accounting Standards Board's disclosure rules on Level 3 recurring fair value measurements. We document widespread noncompliance with the basic disclosure requirements. We also find that the noncompliant banks are smaller in size and are associated with lower audit quality, lower institutional ownership and less effective internal controls. Our results should be of use to regulators, auditors and audit committees in the United States, Australia and other countries for assessing the likelihood of noncompliance with fair value disclosure rules and improving the quality of fair value disclosures provided to investors.     

Strategic insider trading around earnings announcements in Australia

This paper tests, within the Australian setting, whether directors strategically time trades in their own firms, around earnings announcements, in the context of impediments to trading in the immediately preceding period. I show that both signed and unsigned trade activity are insignificantly different from zero in the preceding period, and significantly negative and positive after the event. Further, directors in Australia significantly sell following positive earnings news, and buy after negative news, providing evidence of ‘indirect’ trading. Directors’ trades in the longer-term pre-announcement period are also negatively related to the news content sentiment, contrary to expectation. Finally, I find evidence of positive autocorrelation between directors’ trades over the longer-term past, and those executed after earnings announcements, which, in the absence of the ‘short-swing’ rule in Australia, casts doubt over short-term strategic insider trading, more generally.     

Market response to syndicated loan announcements from high-profile failed and acquiring banks during the global financial crisis

Previous studies that have examined the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on syndicated loans have ignored potential differences between lending banks by explicitly or implicitly aggregating all lenders together and focusing on borrower characteristics. One must jointly consider both borrower and lender to fully understand the complex role of the syndicate during this period. We consider the identity of the lender, with a focus on five major US banks that failed and their five corresponding acquirers. Our results highlight the distinct roles of investment and commercial banks and facilitate an understanding of relationship and transactional-based lending.     

我国省级区域金融发展对经常项目的影响研究——基于货物贸易视角的分析

本文选取我国大陆31个省(市、自治区)2007年-2018年的面板数据,综合运用系统GMM和差分GMM估计方法,实证检验了沿海与内陆、沿边与非沿边、享受优惠政策高与低、金融控制强与弱等4类不同省区金融发展对经常项目余额的影响。研究结果表明:使用全部样本估计时,金融发展显著负向影响经常项目余额,这一结论经稳健性检验后依然成立。使用不同区域的子样本估计时,金融发展对沿海省区、非沿边省区、享受优惠政策高以及金融控制弱省区的经常项目余额的抑制作用较大,而在其他省区作用较小。因此,各地区应充分利用金融手段来调整进出口余额,以保证经常项目的持续平衡。